Plunge in manufacturing sends sterling tumbling
UK manufacturing output plummeted by 1.5% month-on-month in April, according to official data yesterday which heaped further doubt on the momentum of economic recovery.
News of the plunge wrongfooted the City, which had predicted a fall of only 0.1%, and sent the pound tumbling to a two-week low against the dollar. Sterling was last night trading around $1.6230, down about one-and-a-half cents on its Thursday close.
The poor manufacturing data raised further the chances that the Bank of England will hold UK base rates at a record low of 0.5% in coming months. This outlook was further reinforced yesterday by a Bank of England survey which showed declining inflation expectations.
Economists acknowledged the extra public holiday for the royal wedding and the fact that Easter fell later this year would probably have played a part in dampening manufacturing output in April. However, they hammered home their view that this was far from the whole story.
Broader industrial production, which includes mining and quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and electricity, gas and water supply as well as manufacturing output, dropped by 1.7% month-on-month in April. This is in stark contrast to the 0.1% month-on-month rise predicted by the City, and is another pointer to weak growth by the UK economy, at best, in the second quarter.
The UK economy stagnated in the six months to March, with a 0.5% fall in output in the fourth quarter of last year followed by a 0.5% rise in the opening three months of 2011. This stalling of recovery precedes the implementation of the bulk of the swingeing cuts in public spending planned by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at financial information company Markit, described the April manufacturing output figures as “shockingly weak”.
He said: “It would be wrong to get too concerned over these figures, but it would also be wrong to dismiss them as merely signalling a temporary set-back.”
Mr Williamson added: “The larger-than-expected decline most likely reflects temporary hits to growth arising from the timing of Easter, the extra public holiday – which may have encouraged factories to pull forward their maintenance closures – and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Japanese earthquake. Temporary factors aside, a downward underlying trend in the growth rate of the manufacturing sector is very evident, reflecting weaker demand at home and abroad.
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This stalling of recovery precedes the implementation of the bulk of the swingeing cuts in public spending planned by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government. Chris Williamson, chief economist at financial information company Markit, described the
The latest UK GDP data revealed the private sector reverting to recession, yet the bulk of economists believe that growth is understated and will be revised higher, as indicated by strength in labour market data and business surveys.
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